Explainer-Can Gadi Eisenkot break Israel's political deadlock?

JERUSALEM, Nov 7 - Gadi Eisenkot, a former Israeli military chief,  has the first shot to form a government,  after an inconclusive election last month did not dislodge longtime Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. A spokesperson for President Isaac Herzog announced the invitation to Eisenkot on Saturday.

Eisenkot, whose coalition lacks a majority of parliamentary seats, does not have an easy path to forming a government. Here are some scenarios that could follow:

MINORITY GOVERNMENT

Eisenkot could try to form a minority government with his Yashar party's natural allies — Together, The Democrats and Israel Our Home — propped up by Israel's two Arab parties — Ra'am and the Joint List — even if they don't join the coalition.

Eisenkot's coalition would number 48 seats, with the Arab parties numbering 19 seats that together reach a 67-seat grouping in the 120-seat parliament capable of surviving no-confidence motions.

But even if Eisenkot reverses his campaign pledge not to have Arab parties in government and accepts their support, it would be a hard sell to many Israelis whose attitudes toward Israel's Arab minority have hardened further since the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack.

Israel Our Home, run by right-wing leader Avigdor Lieberman, since the election has repeatedly ruled out forming a minority government with Arab parties.

Netanyahu has focused his campaign on delegitimising support from Arabs, and for now, only The Democrats, a centre-left party, have come out publicly calling for their inclusion.

Both Arab parties endorsed Eisenkot to try to form a government and have said they are ready to work with his broader camp to ensure Netanyahu does not return to power.

Ra'am in 2021 joined the government of former premier Naftali Bennett, one of Eisenkot's current partners who heads the Together party. That government collapsed after 18 months, in part over disagreements over the occupied West Bank.

POTENTIAL ULTRA-ORTHODOX ALLIANCE

Eisenkot and his partners could try to strike a deal with Israel's two ultra-Orthodox parties, which collectively have 13 seats and could hand the former general's bloc a 61-seat majority. They have traditionally been partners of Netanyahu's Likud.

To reach a deal, Eisenkot's bloc and the ultra-Orthodox factions would need to find a compromise on military service exemptions traditionally granted to ultra-Orthodox seminary students. Many Israelis fume at what they see as an unfair burden carried by the mainstream who serve.

Eisenkot and his partners, notably Lieberman, have sharply criticized the exemptions. But Lieberman said in a statement on Friday that he was open to a compromise on the issue, telling supporters "you cannot have it all".

One of the two ultra-Orthodox parties, United Torah Judaism, declined to endorse any candidate following the vote. The other, Shas, endorsed Netanyahu.

UNITY GOVERNMENT

Eisenkot's Yashar, the centre-right Together and the right-wing Israel Our Home could form a unity government with Netanyahu's Likud party, which emerged as the largest in parliament following the October 27 vote.

That grouping would secure 67 seats, a majority in the 120-seat parliament.

However, this option appears remote at this point. Eisenkot's partners would have to break their main pledge to voters: unseating Netanyahu. It would also mean that Netanyahu would likely have to abandon his natural political allies, the far-right and ultra-Orthodox Jewish parties.

Still, if neither camp is able to form a government at the end of weeks of protracted negotiations, a unity government may emerge as a last option. Renewed fighting with Iran could also push the sides together.

IF EISENKOT FAILS, NETANYAHU WILL LIKELY GET A SHOT

Eisenkot will have up to 42 days to form a government. If he fails, Israel's President Isaac Herzog would likely nominate Netanyahu to try.

Netanyahu's religious-nationalist coalition has fallen from its original 64 seats to 53. But Netanyahu could try to split the opposition by peeling away members of its parties and bringing them over to his side.

He has managed to do this before, including as opposition head in the run-up to the 2022 election, which he won. But the coalition he was battling at the time had a far narrower lead and he did not need too many defectors to destabilise his political rivals.

ANOTHER ELECTION

If both Eisenkot and Netanyahu fail, parliament can nominate another candidate to try. There is a deadline for the process of around 100 days. If no one succeeds, another election is held.

Herzog said on Wednesday that everything must be done to avoid another election and urged the parties to come with an open mind to the consultations with him. REUTERS